摘要: The simple multistage model of carcinogenesis is outlined. It provides a satisfactory explanation the power law for age incidence many forms epithelial carcinoma, effects in human populations changing exposures to supposed carcinogenic agents, and observed applied carcinogens animal experiments. In particular, evidence on starting stopping cigarette smoking suggests that both an early late stage may be affected. absence direct nature cellular changes there some reluctance accept with more than two stages, several two-stage models provide good general explanations phenomena. Such has recently been breast cancer; another approach this disease, effectively involving transformations time scale, discussed.