Induced urban and regional spatial development from a "ferry-free E39". A state of the art review and a proposal for theoretical and methodological development

摘要: The main reason for an investment in a “ferry-free E39” is regional and urban development. Today´s models tools cost/benefit analysis don´t account for: (i) Induced spatial development – i.e. longer term generation redistribution of housing, business, commerce, industry terminals - manifested new buildings facilities (ii) How resulting land-use shifts turn lead to induced travel freight transports VMT This research project proposal addresses this problem three ways: 1. A run GIS model traces how major road investments between, around trough Norwegian cities have (industry, offices, homes etc.) what kind activities branches that take place those over multi-year time horizon. 2. Comparisons with impacts from similar projects like Oresundsbron. 3. A Markov chain stochastic replicates the historic process forecast future random usually characterized as “memory-less”: next state depends only on current not sequence events preceded it. The aim develop: • A cost efficient integrated GIS-based method database handling, mapping huge amounts disaggregated data. • Flow charts standardization data describes existing sources automatic analyzers decided outcomes. The philosophy to: • See complex system changes bottom up top down