Multi‐temporal factors influence predation for polar bears in a changing climate

摘要: EV-1 Predation is an ecological interaction infl uenced by abiotic and biotic factors acting on multiple temporal scales, yet multi-temporal comparisons are rare in empirical studies. For polar bears Ursus maritimus , the physical confi guration of habitat conditions which seals hunted may change intra- inter-seasonal scales. Additionally, while eff ects climate have focused linking reductions sea ice to body condition survival, potential changes on-ice hunting not been examined. Employing observational counts killed between early-April late-May 1985 – 2011 (n � 650), we modelled likelihood predation events Beaufort Sea, Canada at We used top model estimate expected kill rate springs 1986 2005 2006 integrated result with fasting rates derived from physiological markers blood samples. A log-likelihood ratio test suggested a approach fi t seal data better than any single scale alone. were ringed Pusa hispida reproduction haul-out behaviour, regional concentration phase climatic indices. Th e estimated mean biomass kills signifi cant predictors bear rates. Results suggest that 50% less was 1986, correlates increase frequency state. propose documented due complex set including underlying prey dynamics, rather single-scale environmental correlation.