Using habitat suitability models to scale up population persistence targets

摘要: Setting operational targets for the protection of species is crucial identifying conservation priorities and monitoring actions' effectiveness. The use quantitative global has grown in past ten years as a response to commitment reducing extinction rates established by Convention on Biological Diversity. We reviewed scale analyses, found that most publications adopted representation targets, corresponding an amount area be protected. no work adequately targeting species' persistence, i.e. complement risk. Despite adoption pragmatic population consisting number individuals protected, been recently proposed conservation, these at level not always warranted. Pros cons using persistence have discussed, yet fundamental issue how from populations still unresolved. discuss process "scaling up" habitat distribution models, test our approach case study European ground squirrel ( Spermophilus citellus ). identified three main steps followed: (i) definition target, (ii) characterisation means suitability model, (iii) scaled target. An up-scaled target should include multiple conditions reflecting (number, size, location protected), uniqueness (e.g. evolutionary potential) representativeness presence different ecosystems). Adopting up within planning approaches can allow protected plans give highest contribution