A Bayesian belief network approach for mapping water conservation ecosystem service optimization region

摘要: Water conservation is one of the most important ecosystem services terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying optimization regions water using Bayesian belief networks not only helps develop a better understanding processes but also increases rationality scenario design and pattern optimization. This study establishes network model. The model, based on networks, forecasts distribution probability projected under different land use scenarios for year 2050 with CA-Markov A key variable subset method proposed to optimize spatial conservation. Three findings were obtained. First, among three scenarios, high value was largest protection scenario, this conducive formulation future policies. Second, influencing factors impacting included precipitation, evapotranspiration use, state set corresponding highest mainly distributed in areas annual average rainfall vegetation coverage. Third, suitable optimizing southern part Maiji District Tianshui, southwest Longxian south Weibin Baoji, northeast Xunyi County northwest Yongshou Xianyang, west Yaozhou Tongchuan.