Model-based method for the assessment of global change in the nature—Society system

摘要: Numerous problems arising from the interaction between nature and society are considered by various authors (Adamenko Kondratyev, 1999; Bartsev et al., 2003; Degermendzhi Bartsev, Gorshkov 2000; Kondratyev. 1990, 1992, 2002, 2004a; Kondratyev 2003a, 2003b, 2003c, 2004a, 2004b, 2006b). The growing number of published works dedicated to global environmental change leads realization that protection natural environment has become an urgent problem. question working out principles underlying coevolution human beings is being posed with ever-increasing persistence. Scientists in many countries making attempts find ways formulating laws governing processes acting on environment. national international programs biosphere climate studies contribute quest for means resolving confliet nature. However, efficient methods regulating activity scale encounter difficulties. major difficulty absence adequate knowledge base pertaining climatic biospheric as well largely incomplete state databases concerning occurring atmosphere, ocean, land. Another inability modern science formulate requirements must be met necessary reliable evaluation forecasting its development sufficiently long time intervals.