Intended Actions: Risk Is Conflicting Incentives

摘要: Most methods for risk analysis take the view that is a combination of consequence and likelihood. Often, this translated to an expert elicitation activity where likelihood interpreted as (qualitative/ subjective) probabilities or rates. However, cases there little data validate probability rate claims, approach breaks down. In our Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis (CIRA) method, we model risks in terms conflicting incentives analyst subjective are traded stakeholder perceived incentives. The objective CIRA provide which input parameters can be audited more easily. main contribution paper show how ideas from game theory, economics, psychology, decision theory combined yield process. CIRA, magnitude related changes utility caused by potential state changes. This setting modeled one shot investigate degree desirability players perceive have.