Consequences of Landscape Fragmentation on Lyme Disease Risk: A Cellular Automata Approach

摘要: The abundance of infected Ixodid ticks is an important component human risk Lyme disease, and various empirical studies have shown that this associated, at least in part, to landscape fragmentation. In study, we aimed exploring how varying woodland fragmentation patterns affect the through tick abundance. A cellular automata model was developed, incorporating a heterogeneous with three interactive components: age-structured population, classical disease transmission function, hosts. set simplifying assumptions were adopted respect study objective field data limitations. model, influences both survival host movement. validation performed study. Scenarios configurations (focusing on fragmentation) simulated compared. indices (density infection prevalence nymphs) differed considerably between scenarios: (i) could be higher highly fragmented woodlands, which supported by number recently published studies, (ii) grassland reduce adjacent woodland, suggests zoonotic diseases should not focus patch-level only, but also landscape-level land cover patterns. Further analysis simulation results indicated strong correlations density, shape aggregation level patches. These findings highlight effect spatial local population movement dynamics risks, can shaped conclusion, using approach beneficial for modelling complex systems as it combined either real world landscapes direct effects or artificial representations outlining possible investigations.