Spatio‐temporal shifts of the dynamic Cape fur seal population in southern Africa, based on aerial censuses (1972–2009)

摘要: A time series of aerial censuses Cape fur seal colonies, spanning four decades (1972–2009) and three countries (South Africa, Namibia, Angola), was analyzed to assess spatio-temporal changes in population numbers. weighted quantile regression approach used estimate trends pup counts that were as proxies for numbers older animals at breeding colonies. There a 74% increase the number colonies over study period, from 23 1973 40 2009. also significant northward shift distribution population. This largely attributable events northern part population's range coinciding with where declined most south Namibia while several new developed one southern Angola. Despite expansion development overall size 2009 similar early 1990s, according count models. Potential mechanisms observed changes, their management implications, are discussed.