On estimating the basic reproduction number for Schistosoma haematobium
作者： M. E. J. Woolhouse , G. Hasibeder , S. K. Chandiwana
DOI: 10.1046/J.1365-3156.1996.D01-88.X
关键词:
摘要: Summary Existing estimates of the basic reproduction number, Ro, for human schistosomes are mostly in range 1–4, implying that should be relatively easy to eliminate from endemic areas, which is contrary practical experience. An estimate Ro a site Zimbabwe obtained here using mathematical model explicitly incorporating two features believed epidemiologically significant; age-dependent exposure and acquired immunity. Parameter are, as far possible, independently, but coefficients representing man-snail snail-man transmission, well parameters effects immunity, must estimated indirectly by fitting field data. Heterogeneity contamination crudely incorporated considering ‘wormy non-wormy’ fractions population. The results suggest Roto 4–5 or more, higher than previous despite only moderate levels infection at this site. It shown sensitive form underlying model. application less realistic models may lead reliable Ro.
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