The future implications of shale gas developments and LNG exports from Australia

摘要: In recent years, LNG markets have become more competitive. Growing energy demand in Asia coupled with the loss of electricty from nuclear power generation in Japan after the Fukushima disaster led to a thriving market, currently headed by Australia but projected include new supplies U.S., Canada and, potentially, Africa 2020. Long-term oil-linked price contracts so far benefited Australian gas export industry. However, most will be based on spot-market prices. This study forecasts an increase at least 6% volume Henry Hub into Asian market by 2017 and for spot pricing make up 40% market. It is estimated that exports from current prices less than $7/GJ, priced the range $12-14/GJ making it attractive importers compared to prices likely excess $15/GJ Australia. The disparity largely due much higher operating labour costs industry put increasing pressure on change its business models reduce addition, increasing LNG exports constraints domestic supplies, leading to increases as result exposure international markets. The development unconventional resources conventional offshore gas resources FLNG perceived viable means availability not only to the market but also thereby maintaining contracted obligations supply. However, potential certain, “Prelude Project” predicted come online 2017, success currently limited coal seam gas, despite high level controversy relation environmental impact public protest. shale faces many barriers, mainly unique geology, costs, lack infrastructure services, community concerns. Therefore, there degree uncertainty whether ever become a significant component exports. study reviews global LNG markets, particular those Asia, makes some conclusions outlook for