Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

作者: Mikael Höök , Simon Davidsson , Sheshti Johansson , Xu Tang

DOI: 10.1098/RSTA.2012.0448

关键词:

摘要: Two of the most fundamental concepts in current debate about future oil supply are oilfield decline rates and depletion rates. These related, but not identical. This paper clarifies definitions these concepts, summarizes underlying theory empirically estimates for different categories oilfield. A database 880 post-peak fields is analysed to determine typical levels, demonstrates that size oilfields has a significant influence on rates, with generally high values small comparatively low larger fields. empirical findings have important implications forecasting.

参考文章(37)
Roger Bentley, Jamie Speirs, Steven Sorrell, Richard Miller, Adam Brandt, Global oil depletion - an assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production UKERC. ,(2009)
Ann Muggeridge, Andrew Cockin, Kevin Webb, Harry Frampton, Ian Collins, Tim Moulds, Peter Salino, Recovery rates, enhanced oil recovery and technological limits Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. ,vol. 372, pp. 20120320- 20120320 ,(2014) , 10.1098/RSTA.2012.0320
J.J. Arps, Analysis of Decline Curves Transactions of the AIME. ,vol. 160, pp. 228- 247 ,(1945) , 10.2118/945228-G
Kristofer Jakobsson, Roger Bentley, Bengt Söderbergh, Kjell Aleklett, The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves Energy Policy. ,vol. 41, pp. 860- 870 ,(2012) , 10.1016/J.ENPOL.2011.11.073
Chun-Pin Chang, Zsay-Shing Lin, Stochastic analysis of production decline data for production prediction and reserves estimation Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering. ,vol. 23, pp. 149- 160 ,(1999) , 10.1016/S0920-4105(99)00013-3
A.F. Van Everdingen, W. Hurst, The Application of the Laplace Transformation to Flow Problems in Reservoirs Journal of Petroleum Technology. ,vol. 1, pp. 305- 324 ,(1949) , 10.2118/949305-G
Andrew R. Flower, World Oil Production Scientific American. ,vol. 238, pp. 42- 49 ,(1978) , 10.1038/SCIENTIFICAMERICAN0378-42
C.J. Campbell, The depletion of oil Marine and Petroleum Geology. ,vol. 9, pp. 666- 671 ,(1992) , 10.1016/0264-8172(92)90038-G