Outbreak analysis with a logistic growth model shows COVID-19 suppression dynamics in China

摘要: China reported a major outbreak of novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV2, from mid-January till mid-March 2020. The number cases outside is now growing fast, while in mainland the virus largely under control. We review epidemic growth and decline curves using phenomenological logistic model to summarize dynamics three parameters that characterize epidemic9s timing, rate peak. During initial phase, doubled every 2.7 (range 2.2 - 4.4) days. increase peaked approximately 10 days after suppression measures were started on 23-25 January peak sick occurred average 18 start measures. From time starting peak, increased by factor 39 province Hubei, 9.5 for all (range: 6.2-20.4 other provinces). Complete took up 2 months 23-57d.), during which period severe restrictions, social distancing measures, testing isolation place. disease has been successful, demonstrating viable strategy contain SARS-CoV2.