The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences

摘要: We investigate the origin and validity of common beliefs regarding “the hot hand” “streak shooting” in game basketball. Basketball players fans alike tend to believe that a player’s chance hitting shot are greater following hit than miss on previous shot. However, detailed analyses shooting records Philadelphia 76ers provided no evidence for positive correlation between outcomes successive shots. The same conclusions emerged from free-throw Boston Celtics, controlled experiment with men women Cornell’s varsity teams. shots influenced Cornell players’ predictions but not their performance. belief hand “detection” streaks random sequences is attributed general misconception according which even short thought be highly representative generating process.