Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis

摘要: Preface 1. Introduction 2. Recent milestones 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis 4. The nature and sources uncertainty 5. Probability distributions statistical estimation 6. Human judgement about with 7. Performing probability assessment 8. propagation 9. graphic communication 10. Analytica: a software tool for 11. Large complex models 12. value knowing how little you know Index.