Introduction to Modeling in Wildlife and Resource Conservation

摘要: Preface. 1 Introduction: why learn modeling?. 1.1 Introduction. 1.2 Structure of the book. 1.3 Supporting computer software. Recommended supporting reading. file on CD. 2 A starting problem: conservation dodo. 2.1 2.2 Conservation 3 Descriptive models: choosing an equation. 3.1 3.2 Dynamic equations. 3.3 Geometric and exponential growth. 3.4 Adding a population ceiling. 3.5 Basic density-dependent models. 3.6 Curvilinear density dependence. 3.7 Delayed 3.8 Depensation or Allee effect. 3.9 Incorporating environmental variability. 3.10 Overview. Programs accompanying Exercises. 4 Structured age, size, stage. 4.1 4.2 Age-structured 4.3 Stage-structured 4.4 Projection versus prediction. 4.5 5 Consumer-resource interactions. 5.1 5.2 Coupling 5.3 Simple interactive model. 5.4 competitive interference. 5.5 Ratio-dependent intake response time frames. 5.6 Accommodating 5.7 6 Simulation assessing understanding. 6.1 6.2 dependence to age-structured 6.3 Aspecific example: kudu 6.4 Simplification for management. 6.5 Generalizing model other species. 6.6 7 Harvesting adaptive 7.1 7.2 Principles "maximum sustained yield". 7.3 Surplus production accommodating 7.4 Stock-recruitment 7.5 Policies setting harvest quota. 7.6 Adaptive management responses. 7.7 models fish populations. 7.8 8 Population viability risk analysis. 8.1 8.2 Demographic stochasticity. 8.3 Environmental variability catastrophes. 8.4 Genetic 8.5 8.6 9 Metapopulation spreading risk. 9.1 9.2 patch incidence 9.3 Correlated migration extinction. 9.4 Variable size spacing. 9.5 Source sink 9.6 Mainland-island habitats. 9.7 Examples vertebrate metapopulations. 9.8 10 Modeling infectious diseases: outbreak dynamics. 10.1 10.2 infection 10.3 Cyclic dynamics: measles. 10.4 Slowly sexually transmitted disease: HIV-AIDS. 10.5 Controlling spread wildlife diseases. 10.6 11 Scenario exploring options. 11.1 11.2 Background situation. 11.3 Theoretical concepts. 11.4 white rhino-grassland system. 11.5 Exploring 11.6 Program 12 Vegetation biomass gap 12.1 12.2 Seasonal dynamics vegetation herbivores. 12.3 Size-structured tree population. 12.4 Gap 12.5 13 State transition habitat 13.1 13.2 successional 13.3 Managing savanna livestock. 13.4 Spatially explicit grid 13.5 14 Habitat suitability behavior. 14.1 14.2 Shifting use by overwintering geese. 14.3 browsing antelope from composition. 14.4 General principles. 14.5 15 Reconciling with data: statistical diagnosis. 15.1 15.2 Model selection statistics. 15.3 Diagnosing causes declines. 15.4 Exercise. Appendices. References. Index