Climate Change Sensitivity Assessment on Upper Mississippi River Basin Streamflows Using SWAT

摘要: ABSTRACT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the effects of potential future climate change on hydrology Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Calibration validation SWAT were performed using monthly stream flows for 1968–1987 1988–1997, respectively. R2 Nash-Sutcliffe simulation efficiency values computed comparisons 0.74 0.69 calibration period 0.82 0.81 period. nine 30-year (1968 1997) sensitivity runs six scenarios then analyzed, relative a scenario baseline. A doubling atmospheric CO2 660 ppmv (while holding other variables constant) resulted in 36 percent increase average annual streamflow while flow changes −49, −26, 28, 58 predicted precipitation −20, −10, 10, 20 percent, Mean 51,10, 2, −6, 38, 27 by response projections generated from CISRO-RegCM2, CCC, CCSR, CISRO-Mk2, GFDL, HadCMS general circulation scenarios. High seasonal variability also within individual large indicated between specific months. Overall, reveal degree uncertainty current forecasts region. results indicate that simulated UMRB is very sensitive forecasted changes.