Anti-persistence in levels of Lake Naivasha: Assessing effect of human intervention through time-series analysis

摘要: Abstract Lake Naivasha in Kenya is an important natural fresh water reserve, supporting surrounding wildlife as well agriculture and industry. Uncontrolled use of the lake for past few decades causing concern environmentalists. In present paper, fluctuations level last half century are analysed using standard tools time-series analysis. The intervals 1951–1980 (period I) 1981–2000 II) treated separately, to look any difference their statistical patterns. From period II onwards, increased human consumption believed affect significantly. We analyse data three different approaches: (i) rescaled range analysis ( R / S ) , (ii) roughness scaling (iii) a Lomb periodogram. shows no between behavior periods I II, but other methods reveal fluctuation patterns two periods. stronger compared II. analysis, however, interesting anti-persistence with Hurst exponent 0.44, which not usually observed time series.