Risk assessment from debris flows in pyroclastic deposits along a motorway, Italy

摘要: This paper contains a quantitative estimate of the risk to life along A3 motorway, Naples–Salerno. It examines 1 km long section route between towns Pagani and Nocera Inferiore which passes below northern slope St. Pantaleone hill. During 38 years 1960 1997 there have been four debris flows claimed two casualties, as well large amount damage injuries resulted in motorway remaining closed traffic for time. The annual probability death at least one occupant vehicle was calculated using "event tree" analysis. following assumptions made: only accidents caused by direct impact moving with landslide debris; chance that more than person could be present car during an accident not considered; it assumed is uniformly distributed Over 38-year period considered, occurrence fatality single due crashes into defines unacceptable Results suggest countermeasures are needed reduce entire prone when considering high intensity.