Age-Structured Population Modeling of HPV-related Cervical Cancer in Texas and US.

摘要: Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cervical cancer is a major public health threat to women, with >10,000 new cases diagnosed annually in the United States between 2008 and 2012. Since HPV vaccines can protect against ~80% of HPV-associated cancers, economic epidemiological impacts vaccination have been extensively investigated, particularly at national level. However, policies are state-specific, state-level models required for state-specific policy decisions. This study adapted an age-structured population model describe dynamics HPV-related Texas, parameters calibrated Texas. The Year 2000 parameter set was start point, model's predictions from 2001-2010 were well matched real incidence numbers 23 age groups, suggesting validity model. Application 2010 predicted that, over next 10 decades, would decrease rapidly within first decade more slowly thereafter. Sensitivity analysis determined impact selected (e.g., vaccine coverage rate) on future disease incidence. When compared US sets, Texas sensitive changes transmission ~8% difference decline).