Forecasting high proportions of wind energy supplying the Brazilian Northeast electricity grid

摘要: This study examines the optimal integration of high proportions wind energy into an electricity grid which traditionally depends on hydroelectricity. Wind power in Brazilian Northeast (NE) is expected to generate 57% NE’s supply by 2020. As rainfall NE region susceptible climate change, it anticipated that could substitute lost hydroelectric availability. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model used simulate speeds for all 2014 calculate across entire Brazil. region’s aggregate hourly generation net load curve are then estimated increasing penetrations using planned rollout farms as a baseline. maximum penetration be approximately 50% before significant amounts would need curtailed or exported other regions. It was found from coastal best correlates with monthly variations subsystem’s curve. Conversely, inland elevated plateaus typically more late at night, but have higher capacity factors.