The nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making about complex governance issues

摘要: In a governance context, decisions are made by both public and private actors, often in interaction with each other. Decision making about complex issues fraught uncertainties the current state of affairs, relevant set decision alternatives, reactions other or future developments likely to affect issue under consideration. Uncertainty comes different kinds, however, its conceptualization has been fragmented across fields study. We argue that nature uncertainty consists three types. Policy analysis involving modelling systems such as transport ecological have led distinguishing between epistemic (involving lack knowledge particular system) ontological (irreducible unpredictability is due inherently system behaviour). Studies on interactive political processes decision-making identified ambiguity an rather nature, consisting conflicts fundamentally frames at hand. Scholars also argued there it important differentiate objects uncertainty. First, substantive uncertainty, content policy issues. addition, network scholars pointed importance strategic which refers actions actors game decision-making, institutional rules decision-making. this paper, we bring together strands literatures present novel analytical framework allows combine natures (epistemic, ambiguity) (substantive, institutional), providing comprehensive for analysing addressing nine lives exemplify how types allow tailored intervention strategies deal