Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management

摘要: Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread susceptible populations. Different contain different assumptions and parameterizations, policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent framework integrate is nascent epidemiology. Ensemble modelling structured decision-making models, compare support decision-making. We briefly review epidemiological application ensemble illustrate potential these methods using foot mouth disease (FMD) In case study one, we apply five possible across three FMD show which outbreak costs robustly supported impacted model uncertainty. two, develop methodology for weighting how schemes may choice action. Using studies, broadly epidemiology provide better information outline necessary development their further application.