Real-time Performance of the Virtual Seismologist Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm in Southern California

摘要: The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) that estimates magnitude, location, and the distribution of peak ground motion using observed amplitudes, predefined prior information, appropriate attenuation relationships (Cua 2005; Cua Heaton 2007). application Bayes's theorem in 2005) states most probable source estimate at any given time combination contributions from information (possibilities include network topology or station health status, hazard maps, forecasts, Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship) likelihood function, which takes into account observations ongoing earthquake. Prior can be considered relatively static over timescale rupture. changes predicted distribution, are updated each second, due function as additional arrival amplitude data become available. potential use differentiates VS other regional, EEW algorithms, such ElarmS (Allen Kanamori 2003).