Modeling valley fever (coccidioidomycosis) incidence on the basis of climate conditions.

摘要: Valley fever (coccidioidomycosis) is a disease endemic to arid regions within the Western Hemisphere, and caused by soil-dwelling fungus, Coccidioides immitis. Incidence data for Pima County, reported Arizona Department of Health Services as new cases valley fever, were used conduct exploratory analyses develop monthly multivariate models relationships between incidence climate conditions variability in Arizona, USA. Bivariate compositing conducted during portion study revealed that antecedent temperature precipitation different seasons are important predictors incidence. These results selection candidate variables predictive modeling, which was designed predict deviation from mean on basis past, current, forecast conditions. The specified using backward stepwise procedure, most sensitive key predictor winter season time-lagged 1 year or more prior month being predicted. Model accuracy generally moderate (r 2 values models, tested independent data, ranged 0.15 0.50), months with high can be predicted accurately than low