Dynamics of Childhood Infections in High Birthrate Countries

摘要: The majority of the mathematical literature concerned with disease dynamics is transmission in populations fixed size where net births balance deaths. current generation models do not take account case fatalities nor positive population growth rates and are therefore limited use to aid data interpretation or for design optimal control policies developing areas. A deterministic model epidemiology an infectious which induces lifelong immunity described. allows age dependent fatality growth. Both equilibrium dynamical results discussed; former connection estimation parameters from published data, latter reference investigation possible effects different vaccination strategies. Measles used as example throughout, made available on measles tropical regions.