Entrapment: Global Ecological and/or Local Demographic? Reflections Upon Reading the BMJ's Six Billion Day Special Issue

摘要: Global human population recently passed six billion. To mark this, the BMJ (formerly British Medical Journal) published a special edition that was both controversial and innovative. It had 12 complimentary essays, written by leading demographers, epidemiologists, public health workers. A key issue highlighted debate between nondemographer Maurice King many regarding concept of “demographic entrapment.” his supporters argue limited reserve carrying capacity Rwanda major factor in country's devastating civil war, consequence which release spare capacity. In contrast to this body opinion, importance pressure as Rwanda's war is denied, not only demographers but most other analysts Rwanda. A second journal overconsumption, particularly natural capital. The partially recognized demographic papers, none exhibited sense urgency concerning conveyed two relevant papers epidemiologists workers. This article discusses sections with regard entrapment overconsumption. addition, several examples entrapment, historic contemporary, are suggested described. Finally, suggestion whole world may be demographically entrapped refined consideration ongoing global environmental changes, anthropogenic natural, likely reduce future While such changes are, themselves, unlikely cause under-nutrition, negative political economic consequences increased regional scarcity, consequent approaching or passing local capacities, exacerbate risk conflict. These areas conflict could widen, aggravated an frequency disasters, predicted some computerized climate change models. At worst case, “civilization failure” “barbarianization” result. complex pathway substantially caused adverse change, called “ecological