Impacts of climate change on the gross primary production of Italian forests

摘要: The impact of climatic change should not be dramatic over Italian forests in terms GPP, which increase particularly for evergreen forest types. This positive effect is less marked deciduous forests. increasing trend reduced by the end century all types except mountain conifers because temperature and decreasing rainfall. Estimating spatial temporal variability gross primary production (GPP) a major issue applied ecology, relation to ongoing expected climate change. current study proposes methodological framework analyzing large-scale responses GPP. methodology utilizes GPP estimates an NDVI-driven model, C-Fix, assess performance biogeochemical BIOME-BGC. two models were first at 1-km pixel scale Italy period 15 years (1999–2013). model outputs, aggregated on annual basis main types, inter-compared analyzed meteorological drivers (i.e., water-limiting factors). C-Fix BIOME-BGC responded similarly these drivers, supported application as prognostic tool simulate during three time slices RCP4.5 scenario. results obtained highlight how importance spring water availability diversified among determining changes peninsula future climate.