Best practice assessment of disease modelling for infectious disease outbreaks.

摘要: During emerging disease outbreaks, public health, emergency management officials and decision-makers increasingly rely on epidemiological models to forecast outbreak progression determine the best response health crisis needs. Outbreak strategies derived from such modelling may include pharmaceutical distribution, immunisation campaigns, social distancing, prophylactic pharmaceuticals, medical care, bed surge, security other requirements. Infectious estimates are unavoidably subject multiple interpretations, full understanding of a model's limitations be lost when provided modeller practitioner government policymaker. We review created for diseases which greatest concern protection. Such diseases, whether transmitted person-to-person (Ebola, influenza, smallpox), via direct exposure (anthrax), or food waterborne (cholera, typhoid) cause severe illness death in large population. examine disease-specific practices characterising infectious outbreaks facilitating implementation policy control measures.