Trend of technology innovation in China's coal-fired electricity industry under resource and environmental constraints

摘要: Abstract This research builds a technology-based bottom-up model to estimate the performance of China's coal-fired electricity industry on resource consumption and environmental emissions. From integrated estimation three scenarios characterizing different stages technology innovation in 2007–2030, is proven be determinant decreasing use effects from production, but analysis based current policies reveals some doubt achieving coal intensity control target. Constrained with national targets, best route calculated by benefit targeting optimization. Supercritical (SC) ultra-supercritical (USC) pressure boilers, flue gas desulfurization (FGD) closed-cycle wet cooling high circulation ratio will mainstream technologies before 2030 policy. It inevitable close or reconstruct small power plants late 2010s, gasification combined cycle (IGCC) pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC-CC) show competitive advantage 2020s. However, air FGD systems expand slower than authorities' expectation, while higher water prices SO2 charges promote expansion. Stricter restrictions are also found positive for technological progress.