Heavy precipitation events over the Euro-Mediterranean region in a warmer climate: results from CMIP5 models

摘要: Possible changes in the intensity of heavy precipitation events at end twenty-first century over Euro-Mediterranean region are investigated, using a subset numerical climate simulations taking part to fifth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). As measure associated with events, we use difference between 99th and 90th percentiles. Despite slight tendency underestimate observed during summer overestimate it winter, considered CMIP5 models well represent patterns defined 99th–90th percentile metric both seasons for 1997–2005 period region. Over investigated domain, an increase width right tail distribution is projected warmer climate, even regions where nearly entire becomes dryer. This case European domain within 45N–55N belt.