Predicting invasion winners and losers under climate change.

摘要: Invasive plant species are human-introduced, nonnative, and damaging. They can restructure natural habitats, change community composition, disrupt food webs, degrade ecosystem services. Global climatic changes often thought to exacerbate invasions (1), but no consensus exists over the generality of this phenomenon (2). As a consequence, anticipating areas high invasion risk or decreased impact in future is still uncertain. By combining experimental biogeography with demographic models, Merow et al. (3) develop climate driven process-based models predict population growth decline under current scenarios for two established damaging invasive New England, United States. find that one will likely perform better, whereas other do worse currently occupied. Forecasting distribution performance changing comes particular challenges. have not had time colonize all favorable habitats available nonnative range. This nonequilibrium situation problematic correlative which may then use incomplete occurrences range as inputs predicting suitable conditions. However, predictions be improved by using occurrence data from native (4). A more concerning challenge invasives able establish environmental conditions has encountered (4⇓⇓–7), even if those occur unoccupied (6). Niche … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence should addressed. Email: buckleyy{at}tcd.ie. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1