An agent-based approach for predicting patterns of pathogen transmission between aquaculture sites in the Norwegian fjords

摘要: Abstract The aquaculture industry is a main in Norway, and it must be sustainable, i.e. experience long-term growth development: It necessary to build an environmentally sustainable that minimizes risks the marine environment biological diversity, – including transmission of fish diseases. process disease systems influenced by many factors, individual (fish pathogen) conditions, movement behavior environmental conditions. Fish dynamics originates from complex system, viruses unstable process, making difficult predict analyze. In preparation for this paper, we built agent-based model patterns pathogen with purpose identifying hazards space time domains. presented explores potential effects different such as conditions agents, on simulated spread disease. We applied developed case studies Norwegian fjords. results demonstrated how infection risk at any point around infected site dependent both density point, increases when or densities increase. decreases exponentially function increase water temperature, velocity current site. pathogens are moved faster higher velocity, so will slow local Nevertheless, carry nearby places faster. direction very important since predominantly currents. method helps us advance our understanding builds maps help reduce infectious By using method, may study spatial dynamic aspects infections address stochastic nature process.