Assessment of land degradation susceptibility by scenario analysis: A case study in Southern Tuscany, Italy

摘要: Abstract In the Mediterranean area land degradation phenomena are becoming more and important due to future climate change increasing variability, as highlighted in recent global assessment projects such “Millennium Ecosystem Assessment” or “The Dialogue on Water Climate”. Thus, there is consistent evidence that extreme events droughts floods frequent than before. On other hand strongly influenced by human activities cultivation over hundreds of years. However, last decades methods techniques subject profound changes mechanization, use fertilizers pesticides, remodellation entire hillslopes etc. This particular situation leads to, aggravates existing stress resources. As a result, soil erosion leading decreasing productivity loss fertile top related water quality quantity issues. The Centre for Soil Erosion Studies (CRES) Grosseto, Tuscany recently started study identify monitor land-use southern Tuscany, Italy. aim this assess sensitivity scenario analysis. proxi surface wash processes rill interill chosen. These present day identified aerial photo interpretation subsequently modelled with simple RUSLE approach monthly basis. boundary conditions precipitation were taken from A2 published International Panel Climate Change (IPCC)-Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES). Moreover, current was photographs scenarios developed considering ecological socio-economical issues test area. Subsequently, different analysed susceptibility landscape scale. shows even decline volume until 2070, some months higher rates occur rainfall erosivity. Furthermore, play an role susceptibility. shown, various can effectively reduce enhance erosion.