Application of the carcinogenicity prediction and battery selection (CPBS) method to the gene-tox data base

摘要: Abstract The carcinogenicity prediction and battery selection (CPBS) method (Chankong et al., 1985) utilizes the results of short-term tests to predict chemicals select batteries that are capable giving accurate predictions at reasonable costs. CPBS has been applied data compiled under aegis Gene-Tox Program U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as a demonstration on typical base. A number were selected by methodology having superior performance characteristics. Bayesian resulting from most 3-assay very good (greater than 90% carcinogens correctly identified). It was also found specified composition gave generally more 4 or assays unspecified composition. problems which may have affected our identified: (1) reliability sensitivities specificities individual assays, (2) prior probability chemical is carcinogen assumed be 0.5, (3) we not (as yet) taken into account some non-genotoxic will produce false negative results. We currently investigating approaches take these factors consideration. Our analysis indicates testing for (especially probable non-carcinogens) needed further enhance predictive capability method.