作者: Günther Fischer , Francesco N. Tubiello , Harrij van Velthuizen , David A. Wiberg
DOI: 10.1016/J.TECHFORE.2006.05.021
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摘要: Abstract Potential changes in global and regional agricultural water demand for irrigation were investigated within a new socio-economic scenario, A2r, developed at the International Institute Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) with without climate change, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Water deficits crops Food Agriculture Organization (FAO)–IIASA Agro-ecological Zone model, based on daily balances 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude then aggregated to regions globe. Future requirements computed as function both projected irrigated land change simulations performed from 1990 2080. trends extents land, use, withdrawals computed, specific attention given implications mitigation. Renewable water-resource availability was estimated under current future conditions. Results suggest that may have significant positive effects compared unmitigated change. Specifically, reduced impacts by about 40%, or 125–160 billion m3 (Gm3) climate. Simple estimates efficiency costs 2080 translate into annual cost reductions 10 billion US$.