Rational volcanic hazard forecasts and the use of volcanic alert levels

摘要: Volcanologists make hazard forecasts in order to contribute volcanic risk assessments and decision-making, areas where phenomena have the potential impact societal assets. Present-day related occurrence of an eruption mostly take form alert levels, that are established by volcano scientists with aim communicating state a its possible short-term evolution. Here I analyse current level systems their role decision-making processes. show use such implies predictive capabilities not supported corresponding levels confidence knowledge volcano. Their also assumption scientist responsibility for decisions goes beyond expertise scientist, which, most countries, is granted mandate. A rational forecast system accepts instead uncertain nature processes consequent limited capabilities; expressed as probabilities, or better probability distributions, reflect attitude assure clear roles both mandate any group involved management crisis. Exceptions may lead efficient discussed.