The role of subjective risk perceptions in shaping coastal development dynamics

摘要: Abstract Social and economic costs in coastal zones resulting from natural hazard events, such as hurricanes, are increasing. Household residential location decisions adaptive behaviors (i.e., purchasing insurance) influenced by perceived risk of storms can have long-term consequences for development patterns regional resilience. Perceived risks may be capitalized into housing prices hazardous areas, but the attraction amenities dampen market responses to information. Empirical studies provide contradictory conclusions about effect storm events on dynamics, thus decision-making processes leading post-storm insurance purchase choices remain unclear. Here, an agent-based model (ABM) coupled land markets (CHALMS), adapted a setting, or C-CHALMS, is used investigate alternative models associated behavioral mechanisms driving responses. A pattern-oriented modeling (POM) abductive reasoning approach compare ability explain empirical dynamics. By explicitly individual decision-making, results demonstrate that vary greatly within landscape. Coastal effects price dynamics properties immediately adjacent coast, while areas with lowest damages (and amenities) most responsive events. Further, psychological factors, salience positive negative consequences, policy uptake after better than rational alone.