Long-term Coordination of Timber Production and Consumption Using a Dynamic Material and Energy Flow Analysis

摘要: Summary A dynamic model for wood and energy flows is used to analyze regional timber management. The combines a sitequality-dependent forest-growth module with modules the industry, products use, waste management, supply. calibrated data of Swiss lowland region period 1900‐1997. Scenarios are developed until 2100 in order discuss possible future roles domestic timber. Model simulations show that, present strategies, overproduction will further increase twenty-first century because an forest site quality second half twentieth century, among other reasons. building gross floor area by factor 5 during coincides reduction use construction 4.5, from 90 kg/m 2 20 . Increasing density buildings could address overproduction; however, strategy not be accomplished alone. balance production consumption on level also achieved scenario which stock gradually exchanged that exclusively combination solar panels roofs firewood as heat-energy sources. These replacement would have typical late twentieth-century buildings, they need perform low-energy standard more than 130 MJ/m /yr.