The use of Factorial Forecasting to predict public response

摘要: Policies that call for members of the public to change their behavior fail if people don’t change; predictions whether requisite changes will take place are needed prior implementation. I propose solve prediction problem with Factorial Forecasting, a version functional measurement methodology employs group designs. Aspects proposed new policy factorially manipulated within scenarios, and respondents typical of those whose would need asked project how they would react. Because it is impractical validate projections by seeing if they correspond what eventually happens, advocate evaluating validity by invoking coherence criterion.