The British river of the future: How climate change and human activity might affect two contrasting river ecosystems in England

摘要: Abstract The possible effects of changing climate on a southern and north-eastern English river (the Thames the Yorkshire Ouse, respectively) were examined in relation to water ecological quality throughout food web. CLASSIC hydrological model, driven by output from Hadley Centre model (HadCM3), based IPCC low high CO2 emission scenarios for 2080 used as basis analysis. Compared current conditions, predicted lower flows both rivers, all seasons except winter. Such an outcome would lead longer residence times (by up month Thames), with nutrient, organic biological contaminant concentrations elevated 70–100% pro-rata, assuming sewage treatment effectiveness remains unchanged. Greater opportunities phytoplankton growth will arise, this may be significant Thames. Warmer winters milder springs favour riverine birds increase recruitment many coarse fish species. However, warm, slow-flowing, shallower incidence diseases. These conditions make UK rivers general less favourable habitat some species fish, such Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Accidental or deliberate, introductions alien macrophytes change range rivers. In areas, it is that concurrence different pressures give rise temporary loss ecosystem services, providing acceptable humans industry. An increasing demand England due expanding population, possibly reduced flow change, together Water Framework Directive obligation maintain quality, put extreme pressure ecosystems,