Assessing the impact of power plant location decisions on the long term development of the electricity sector

摘要: This research presents a new way to assess the impact of location decisions for power plants by producers. It builds on an existing agent-based model that is able simulate market and investment behavior produc- ers in north western European electricity (EMlab-generation). study adds module based game theory concepts both selection producers required spatial permit procedure. In end this could help give insights possible future developments plant siting specific country (Netherlands case). TSOs policy makers their regimes anticipate po- tential generation capacity. The main question formulated as: How does set factors considered affect development technological distribution Netherlands?. starts investigate what aspects play role decision plants. From literature empirical sources it found besides technical requirement generating technologies (Cooling water, feedstock connection etc. ), procedure plays major decision. Permit risk as producer call significantly decrease profitability project delays thus very important factor. connected with potential local activism against plant. Activism simplified conceptualized three factors: Population density, wealth attitude towards technology. addition contains two parts. First se- lects technology finds best locations according its own method. be modelled easily utility func- tions. second part more difficult involves negotiations government potentially several parties (ac- tivists). concept nucleolus used conceptualize payed monetary environmental compensation fee (based legal obligation), afterwards are fee, unhappiest party first. ease negative attitudes lower chance go court delay project, threatening profitability. essence data input sites Netherlands (SEVIII) regional statistics bureau statistics. simulation results show produce different methods producers, geographical mix. Addi- tionally amount also influences distribu- tion Finally other related such CCS at were incorporated showed results. subject some limitations, these mainly have do choices simplifications inputs. something always consider when reviewing modelling studies general. analysis contain types contributions: • current EMlab-generation extended now in- corporate Additionally lot valuable shows similarities described data. methodological contributions area agent- theory. Nucleolus has not been environment sim- ulate kind Under conditions assumptions we use enables applications many fields social negotiations. A start made real world applications. Scenarios Tennet capacity 2030 compared our results, showing differences similari- ties. detail research’s improve scenarios developments. observations regards policies given possibilities discussed.