Marketing time predicts naturalization of horticultural plants

摘要: Horticulture is an important source of naturalized plants, but our knowledge about naturalization frequencies and potential patterns in horticultural plants limited. We analyzed a unique set data derived from the detailed sales catalogs (1887-1930) most early Florida, USA, plant nursery (Royal Palm Nursery) to detect these state. Of 1903 nonnative species sold by nursery, 15% naturalized. The probability becoming increases significantly with number years were marketed. Plants that became invasive for average 19.6 14.8 years, respectively, compared 6.8 non-naturalized 30 or more 70%. Unexpectedly, earlier less likely naturalize than those later. nursery's inexperience, which caused them grow market many unsuited Florida during their period, may account this pattern. pantropical distributions native both Africa Asia (42%), other smaller regions, suggesting large ranges naturalize. Naturalization percentages also differed according life form, occurring aquatic herbs (36.8%) vines (30.8%). belonging families Araceae, Apocynaceae, Convolvulaceae, Moraceae, Oleaceae, Verbenaceae had higher expected naturalization. Information theoretic model selection indicated was sold, alone together first year strongest predictor Because continued importation marketing will lead additional invasion, comprehensive approach address problem, including research identify select noninvasive forms types urgently needed.