作者: P. J. Irvine , L. J. Gregoire , D. J. Lunt , P. J. Valdes
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摘要: Abstract. We present a simple method to generate perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), HadCM3, without requiring flux-adjustment. The aim was produce an that samples parametric uncertainty in some key variables and gives plausible representation the climate. Six atmospheric parameters, sea-ice ocean were jointly within reasonable range initial group 200 members. To screen out implausible members, 20 yr pre-industrial control simulations run members whose temperature responses perturbations projected be outside 13.6 ± 2 °C, i.e. near observed global mean, discarded. Twenty-one including standard unperturbed model, accepted, covering almost entire span eight challenging argument flux-adjustment ranges would unduly restricted. This used experiments; 800 150 quadrupled CO2 simulation. behaviour PPE for compared well ERA-40 reanalysis data CMIP3 number surface column with exception few Tropics. However, we find low values entrainment rate coefficient show very large increases upper tropospheric stratospheric water vapour concentrations response elevated one member showed nonlinear climate response, as such will excluded from future experiments this ensemble. outcome study is AOGCM which methodology applicable other GCMs.