An efficient method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of a fully coupled AOGCM without flux-adjustment

作者: P. J. Irvine , L. J. Gregoire , D. J. Lunt , P. J. Valdes

DOI: 10.5194/GMD-6-1447-2013

关键词:

摘要: Abstract. We present a simple method to generate perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), HadCM3, without requiring flux-adjustment. The aim was produce an that samples parametric uncertainty in some key variables and gives plausible representation the climate. Six atmospheric parameters, sea-ice ocean were jointly within reasonable range initial group 200 members. To screen out implausible members, 20 yr pre-industrial control simulations run members whose temperature responses perturbations projected be outside 13.6 ± 2 °C, i.e. near observed global mean, discarded. Twenty-one including standard unperturbed model, accepted, covering almost entire span eight challenging argument flux-adjustment ranges would unduly restricted. This used experiments; 800 150 quadrupled CO2 simulation. behaviour PPE for compared well ERA-40 reanalysis data CMIP3 number surface column with exception few Tropics. However, we find low values entrainment rate coefficient show very large increases upper tropospheric stratospheric water vapour concentrations response elevated one member showed nonlinear climate response, as such will excluded from future experiments this ensemble. outcome study is AOGCM which methodology applicable other GCMs.

参考文章(54)
Timothy Andrews, Piers M. Forster, Olivier Boucher, Nicolas Bellouin, Andy Jones, Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change Geophysical Research Letters. ,vol. 37, ,(2010) , 10.1029/2010GL043991
Richard N. Cooper, J. T. Houghton, James J. McCarthy, Bert Metz, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Foreign Affairs. ,vol. 81, pp. 208- ,(2002) , 10.2307/20033020
Kuniko Yamazaki, Daniel J. Rowlands, Tolu Aina, Adam T. Blaker, Andy Bowery, Neil Massey, Jonathan Miller, Cameron Rye, Simon F. B. Tett, Daniel Williamson, Yasuhiro H. Yamazaki, Myles R. Allen, Obtaining diverse behaviors in a climate model without the use of flux adjustments Journal of Geophysical Research. ,vol. 118, pp. 2781- 2793 ,(2013) , 10.1002/JGRD.50304
Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, Tomoo Ogura, James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Youichi Kamae, Ryouta O’ishi, Rei Nobui, Seita Emori, Toru Nozawa, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masahide Kimoto, Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results Climate Dynamics. ,vol. 39, pp. 3041- 3056 ,(2012) , 10.1007/S00382-012-1441-X
D. Masson, R. Knutti, Climate model genealogy Geophysical Research Letters. ,vol. 38, ,(2011) , 10.1029/2011GL046864
Thorsten Mauritsen, Bjorn Stevens, Erich Roeckner, Traute Crueger, Monika Esch, Marco Giorgetta, Helmuth Haak, Johann Jungclaus, Daniel Klocke, Daniela Matei, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Dirk Notz, Robert Pincus, Hauke Schmidt, Lorenzo Tomassini, Tuning the climate of a global model Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. ,vol. 4, ,(2012) , 10.1029/2012MS000154
C. Gordon, C. Cooper, C. A. Senior, H. Banks, J. M. Gregory, T. C. Johns, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. A. Wood, The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments Climate Dynamics. ,vol. 16, pp. 147- 168 ,(2000) , 10.1007/S003820050010
R. A. Colman, On the vertical extent of atmospheric feedbacks Climate Dynamics. ,vol. 17, pp. 391- 405 ,(2001) , 10.1007/S003820000111
J. T. Kiehl, Kevin E. Trenberth, Earth's annual global mean energy budget Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. ,vol. 78, pp. 197- 208 ,(1997) , 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2
Jonathan M Gregory, William J Ingram, MA Palmer, Gareth S Jones, PA Stott, RB Thorpe, Jason A Lowe, TC Johns, KD Williams, A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity Geophysical Research Letters. ,vol. 31, ,(2004) , 10.1029/2003GL018747