The global timber market: implications of changes in economic growth, timber supply, and technological trends

摘要: Abstract A partial equilibrium model was applied to the global forest sector in order assess regional and impacts of changes economic growth, timber supply potentials, technical trends. The uses recursive price-endogenous linear programming deals with eight geographical regions 16 products. base line projections gave an average annual increase industrial roundwood 1.2% until year 2010. real price sawlogs sawnwood found remain approximately constant, whereas prices pulpwood particles increased significantly during first years, then declined after 2000. pulp paper less than those particles. assumed variations GDP growth rates had limited influence on quantities supplied traded due restricted but affected prices, especially Changes potentials change significantly. Introduction a responsive also dampened peaks pulpwood. Possible improvements methodology include empirical estimation key parameters that determine capacity expansion, trade inertia, changes.