Information-theoretic portfolio decision model for optimal flood management

摘要: Abstract The increasing impact of flooding urges more effective flood management strategies to guarantee sustainable ecosystem development. Recent catastrophes underline the importance avoiding local management, but characterizing large scale basin wide approaches for systemic risk management. Here we introduce an information-theoretic Portfolio Decision Model (iPDM) optimization a value at by evaluating all potential mitigation plans. iPDM calculates predicted feasible combinations control structures (FCS) considering environmental, social and economical asset criteria. A multi-criteria decision analytical model evaluates benefits FCS portfolios weighted stakeholder preferences assets’ criteria as services. is based on maximum entropy (MaxEnt) that predicts susceptibility, floods exceedance probability distribution, its most important drivers. Information theoretic global sensitivity uncertainty analysis used select simplest accurate return period. stochastic algorithm optimizes constrained budget available provides Pareto frontiers optimal plans any level. solutions maximize diversity minimize criticality manifested scaling exponent distribution size links hydrogeomorphological patterns. proposed tested 17,000 km2 Tiber river in Italy. allows stakeholders identify basins comprehensive evaluation effects under future trajectories.