Estimated reductions in cardiovascular and gastric cancer disease burden through salt policies in England: an IMPACTNCD microsimulation study

摘要: Objective To estimate the impact and equity of existing potential UK salt reduction policies on primary prevention cardiovascular disease (CVD) gastric cancer (GCa) in England. Design A microsimulation study a close-to-reality synthetic population. In first period, 2003–2015, we compared current policy against counterfactual ‘no intervention’ scenario, which assumed consumption persisted at 2003 levels. For 2016–2030, additional legislative could achieve steeper decline this scenario that downward trend observed between 2001 2011 would continue up to 2030. Setting Synthetic population with similar characteristics non-institutionalised Participants individuals traits informed by Health Survey for Main measure CVD GCa cases deaths prevented or postponed, stratified fifths socioeconomic status using Index Multiple Deprivation. Results Since 2003, have postponed ∼52 000 (IQR: 34 000–76 000) 10 000 3000–17 000). addition, ∼5000 new 2000–7000) resulting about 2000 fewer 0–4000). This did not reduce inequalities CVD, likely increased GCa. Additional from 2016 further prevent postpone ∼19 000 8000–30 000) 3600 2030 −400–8100) may inequalities. Similarly GCa, 1200 −200–3000) 700 −900–2300) be neutral Conclusions Current are powerfully effective reducing burdens overall but fail involved. structural further, more equitable health benefits.