Long-Term Evaluation of Norris Reservoir Operation Under Climate Change

摘要: This study aimed to address the potential long-term effects of future climate change on Tennessee Valley Authority’s (TVA’s) operation policy for Norris Reservoir. The Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0), a general circulation model (GCM) accessible through Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), with Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) was used obtain projected precipitation and temperature data three scenarios, 2030’s, 2050’s, 2070’s. Three hydrologic models were individually calibrated 30 years observed runoff combined utilizing linear programming consider strengths each model. Inflow hydrographs simulated time spans using temperature. Reservoir routing then inflow via mass balance current determine storage elevation reservoir. Next, simulations utilized as input genetic algorithm forced optimization model, minimize an elevation-based penalty value, optimizing Reservoir’s policy. Finally, performance versus policies generated by developed scenario evaluated. results suggested 20.7, 23.8, 24.3 percent increase in 2070’s, respectively, compared BASE case (1976 ~2006). Although able support this runoff, decreased penalties 23.3, 22.2, 24.4 2050’s respectively. These can provide substantial insight TVA hydrologists decision makers that their may require re-evaluation, considering impacts change.