An integrated assessment for achieving the 2°C target pathway in China by 2030

摘要: Abstract China submitted the Greenhouse gas emission reduction target in form of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to Paris Agreement. To reduce negative impact global warming, a tighter is needed, such as 2-degree target. This study investigated how could reach its emissions peak and decarbonize economy through different key countermeasures various sectors line with NDC 2 °C targets by 2030. A dynamic CGE model used develop ten scenarios that contain two dimensions consisting stringency levels carbon limitation availability low-carbon options. We found baseline scenario, China’s total CO2 2030 would 14.7 Gt. meet target, it essential non-fossil fuel energy, restrict over-expansion energy-intensive industries improve end-use efficiency. Meanwhile, poses higher requirements for technologies both electricity production demand sectors, vigorously promote consumption pattern. Furthermore, we estimated economic impacts if measures are adopted properly, mitigation cost decline 92 226 USD/ton-CO2 under respectively. Accordingly, GDP loss fall from 3.8% barely 0.004% 11.6% 1.6% The welfare will almost not be affected significantly all scenarios. Moreover, also bring co-benefits on air pollution improvement China.