Forecasting the AIDS epidemic in Puerto Rico

摘要: The purpose of this study is to model and predict the diffusion AIDS epidemic in Puerto Rico. Specifically we aim at identifying primary influences geographical distribution population affected with produce a reasonable projection time space paths that will be followed by epidemic. based on incidence data from 1982 through 1992. analyzed statistically multivariate regression potential probability surface which risk behavior intra-municipality mobility are significant factors. growth forecast produced using logistic function fitted past an iterative non-linear optimization method. A simulation technique then employed spatial development 1993 1997. results indicate clear hierarchical tendency beginning epidemic, later wave-like pattern also observed. While absolute number new cases expected remain higher more urbanized areas, relative likely become much rural municipalities. forecasting procedure here applicable populations diverse epidemiological profiles.